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Posted By Admin On February 19th, 2025

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA, has reported that an asteroid capable of levelling a city now has a 3.1 per cent chance of striking Earth in 2032.

This information was contained in data released by the agency on Tuesday, making the asteroid the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting.

Despite the increasing odds, experts have sought to allay fears, insisting there is no cause for alarm.

The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation, and the James Webb Space Telescope is set to focus on the object, known as 2024 YR4, next month.

Bruce Betts, Chief Scientist for the non-profit Planetary Society, explained that as astronomers gather more data, the probability is likely to rise initially before eventually dropping to zero.

“I’m not panicking. Naturally, when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy and good,” he stated.

2024 YR4 was first detected on 27 December last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.

Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, based on its brightness.

The International Asteroid Warning Network, IAWN, a global planetary defence collaboration, issued a warning memo on 29 January after the impact probability surpassed one per cent.

Since then, the figure has fluctuated but has continued to trend upwards.

NASA’s latest calculations place the impact probability at 3.1 per cent, with a potential Earth impact date of 22 December 2032.

This translates to odds of one in 32—roughly the same as correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses.

The last time an asteroid larger than 30 metres posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004 when it briefly had a 2.7 per cent chance of striking Earth in 2029—a possibility later ruled out by additional observations.

Meanwhile, Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defence office, which puts the risk slightly lower at 2.8 per cent, described surpassing this threshold as “historic.”

Source: https://dailypost.ng/2025/02/18/new-asteroid-could-hit-earth-in-2032-nasa/